Indeed, when comparing the lines from April through today, the striking feature is that they have barely moved, with fluctuations measured in the tens of kilometers at most. Small Russian territorial gains aside, the overwhelming reality is a general stasis in the battle lines. There has been such intense focus on Ukraine’s loss of two significant cities in the east- Severodonetsk and Lysychansk-this summer that it’s been easy to lose sight of the broader picture. So what is really happening on the ground? Which take is correct will, in turn, determine the best policy response. Obviously, both interpretations cannot be simultaneously correct-even if we account for uncertainty amid the fog of war.
Advocates of a settlement regard continued support for Ukraine as wishful thinking or worse, whereas those in the second camp regard the first as defeatist and appeasing a dangerous power. Over the last six months, the Western debate-over whether to negotiate for peace or dig in for a longer war-has become increasingly heated. The best policy for the West, therefore, is to double down on supplying Ukraine and allow it to hand Russia a defeat.
High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, to neutralize Russia’s principal military advantage by striking Russian artillery ammunition depots far behind the front line and that Ukrainian forces seem to be gearing up for a major offensive, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced will take place around the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson. This interpretation notes that Russian advances have stalled all along the 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) front that Ukraine has used Western-supplied long-range precision artillery, such as the U.S. The only prudent action, therefore, would be to pursue some sort of negotiated settlement-in essence, trading land for a temporary peace-before a bad situation gets even worse.Ī second, more optimistic view turns this take on its head and sees a Ukrainian victory unfolding over the coming months. This view also claims that Ukraine now finds itself close to exhaustion, having suffered significant casualties and equipment losses. The first narrative-and seemingly the more dominant one-is that the Russians are slowly but surely grinding away at Ukrainian defensive lines in Donetsk and Luhansk, pummeling the defenders with their vast stores of artillery, and slowly but systematically gaining ground. We would like to wish all our readers a Happy New Year.A half year into the Russo-Ukrainian war, two dueling interpretations of what’s happening on the ground increasingly shape Western views of the conflict. This is clearly a healthy message to take into the new year. OPEC sees the biggest challenge facing global oil markets in 2014 as global economic uncertainty - in particular the high sovereign debt in the Euro-zone, high unemployment in the developed economies, especially the Euro-zone, and slow growth, coupled with inflation risk, in the emerging economies.Īnd yet, however this and other challenges may turn out during the year, the important message for now is the relative calm in the oil market today and the cautiously optimistic outlook for the coming months. When we see any irregularity in the market fundamentals, we will talk to our Ministers.”
Leave things as they are and let us see what transpires as we head towards June next year,” added El-Badri, whose term of office was extended for an additional year by the Conference.īut there was no room for complacency, he stressed: “At the OPEC Secretariat in Vienna, we are watching the market very carefully - day in, day out. We do not want to disturb things at the moment. “By maintaining current production, we have taken into consideration the welfare of both producers and consumers,” Secretary General, Abdalla Salem El-Badri, told the press after the meeting. The Conference maintained the current production level of 30m b/d and, at the same time, repeated Member Countries’ readiness to respond swiftly to developments which could have an adverse impact on an orderly and balanced oil market.
However, this rise is expected to be more than offset by an increase in non-OPEC supply.Īgainst such a backdrop, the 164th Meeting of the OPEC Conference passed as most people had expected on December 4 - that is, quietly and affirmatively. With global economic growth in 2014 projected to increase to 3.5 per cent from 2.9 per cent in 2013, world oil demand is forecast to rise by one million barrels/day over the same period. The second half of 2013 saw increasing stability in the market, which was a reflection of the gradual recovery in the world economy. As we enter the new year, there is a mood of cautious optimism in the international oil market.
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